Track record
Every buy, sell, and watch call I've published — scored against XBI, the biotech index.
As of Jul 23, 2026 · hypothetical editorial record, not investment advice
How to read this page
- Buy
- A buy call I published — Core = higher conviction.
- Spec buy
- A speculative buy — higher risk, smaller-size idea.
- Avoid
- A call to stay away — scored by the loss it sidestepped.
- Entry
- The stock's closing price the day I published the call.
- Now
- The latest available closing price.
- Return
- Percent change from Entry to Now (for avoids, the stock's move since the call).
- vs XBI
- XBI is the biotech index ETF. This is Return minus XBI's return over the same dates — the value added beyond just buying the index. For avoids, the loss saved vs holding XBI.
- Open / Closed
- Open = still live. Closed = realized; I flipped the call, calculated return based on that date.
Top buy calls
| Call | Buy | Now | Return | vs XBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SYRE Spyre Therapeutics Buy | $33.47 | $99.35 | +196.8% | +169.8 |
| DFTX Definium Therapeutics Buy | $15.02 | $43.27 | +188.1% | +168.3 |
| IBRX ImmunityBio Buy | $3.02 | $7.43 | +146.2% | +126.4 |
| ETON Eton Pharmaceuticals Buy | $18.22 | $43.79 | +140.3% | +120.5 |
| DRTS Alpha Tau Medical Spec buy | $5.90 | $13.25 | +124.6% | +104.4 |
| FBRX Forte Biosciences Buy | $26.44 | $55.49 | +109.9% | +91.9 |
| ADAG Adagene Spec buy | $1.84 | $3.54 | +92.1% | +67.1 |
| GHRS GH Research Buy | $15.75 | $28.15 | +78.7% | +57.5 |
| FBIO Fortress Biotech Spec buy | $2.27 | $3.51 | +54.6% | +40.4 |
| ORKA Oruka Therapeutics Buy | $63.18 | $92.79 | +46.9% | +35 |
What I told you to avoid
| Call | Since | Stock | Saved vs XBI |
|---|---|---|---|
| RVPH Reviva Pharmaceuticals Avoid | Dec 23, 2025 | -92.5% | +114.2 |
| GOSS Gossamer Bio Avoid | Mar 2, 2026 | -67.9% | +88 |
| CING Cingulate Avoid | Mar 30, 2026 | -19.2% | +47.1 |
| LGVN Longeveron Avoid | May 11, 2026 | -26.1% | +38.9 |
| VNDA Vanda Pharmaceuticals Avoid | Feb 17, 2026 | -12.9% | +34.8 |
| MRKR Marker Therapeutics Avoid | Mar 16, 2026 | -9.9% | +32.5 |
| IXHL Incannex Healthcare Avoid | Mar 16, 2026 | -7.6% | +30.2 |
| PHIO Phio Pharmaceuticals Avoid | Apr 15, 2026 | -18.2% | +29.5 |
Calls that paid off
Buy calls I closed in the green — including takeouts. Entry → exit, realized.
| Call | Bought | Exited | Return | vs XBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTLK Outlook Therapeutics Spec buy | May 28, 2026 | Jun 16, 2026 | +112.2% | +112.6 |
| CRNX Crinetics Pharmaceuticals Acquired | Apr 2, 2026 | Jul 6, 2026 | +128.3% | +103.6 |
| ATAI Atai Beckley Acquired | Dec 24, 2025 | Jul 16, 2026 | +70.6% | +50.3 |
| APGE Apogee Therapeutics Acquired | May 5, 2026 | Jun 22, 2026 | +59.1% | +50.1 |
| ENTA Enanta Pharmaceuticals Buy | Feb 17, 2026 | Jul 2, 2026 | +9% | -19.7 |
Every call
| Call | Entry | Now | Return | vs XBI | Status | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SYRE Spyre Therapeutics Buy | $33.47 | $99.35 | +196.8% | +169.8 | Open | Dec 18, 2025 |
| DFTX Definium Therapeutics Buy | $15.02 | $43.27 | +188.1% | +168.3 | Open | Jan 14, 2026 |
| IBRX ImmunityBio Buy | $3.02 | $7.43 | +146.2% | +126.4 | Open | Jan 14, 2026 |
| ETON Eton Pharmaceuticals Buy | $18.22 | $43.79 | +140.3% | +120.5 | Open | Feb 19, 2026 |
| RVPH Reviva Pharmaceuticals Avoid | $6.43 | $0.48 | -92.5% | +114.2 | Open | Dec 23, 2025 |
| OTLK Outlook Therapeutics Spec buy | $0.74 | $1.57 | +112.2% | +112.6 | Closed Jun 16, 2026 | May 28, 2026 |
| DRTS Alpha Tau Medical Spec buy | $5.90 | $13.25 | +124.6% | +104.4 | Open | Jan 7, 2026 |
| CRNX Crinetics Pharmaceuticals Buy | $37.23 | $85.00 | +128.3% | +103.6 | Closed Jul 6, 2026 | Apr 2, 2026 |
| FBRX Forte Biosciences Buy | $26.44 | $55.49 | +109.9% | +91.9 | Open | Apr 6, 2026 |
| GOSS Gossamer Bio Avoid | $0.43 | $0.14 | -67.9% | +88 | Open | Mar 2, 2026 |
| ADAG Adagene Spec buy | $1.84 | $3.54 | +92.1% | +67.1 | Open | Jan 2, 2026 |
| ACTU Actuate Therapeutics Avoid | $6.49 | $2.89 | -55.5% | +62.2 | Closed May 12, 2026 | Jan 7, 2026 |
| GHRS GH Research Buy | $15.75 | $28.15 | +78.7% | +57.5 | Open | Jan 20, 2026 |
| ATAI Atai Beckley Buy | $4.19 | $7.15 | +70.6% | +50.3 | Closed Jul 16, 2026 | Dec 24, 2025 |
| APGE Apogee Therapeutics Buy | $83.29 | $132.55 | +59.1% | +50.1 | Closed Jun 22, 2026 | May 5, 2026 |
| CING Cingulate Avoid | $5.84 | $4.72 | -19.2% | +47.1 | Open | Mar 30, 2026 |
| FBIO Fortress Biotech Spec buy | $2.27 | $3.51 | +54.6% | +40.4 | Open | Apr 27, 2026 |
| LGVN Longeveron Avoid | $0.84 | $0.62 | -26.1% | +38.9 | Open | May 11, 2026 |
| ORKA Oruka Therapeutics Buy | $63.18 | $92.79 | +46.9% | +35 | Open | May 13, 2026 |
| VNDA Vanda Pharmaceuticals Avoid | $6.20 | $5.40 | -12.9% | +34.8 | Open | Feb 17, 2026 |
| NRIX Nurix Therapeutics Buy | $15.91 | $23.80 | +49.6% | +34.5 | Open | Apr 13, 2026 |
| MRKR Marker Therapeutics Avoid | $1.41 | $1.27 | -9.9% | +32.5 | Open | Mar 16, 2026 |
| IMVT Immunovant Buy | $26.08 | $39.02 | +49.6% | +30.3 | Open | Feb 2, 2026 |
| IXHL Incannex Healthcare Avoid | $3.31 | $3.06 | -7.6% | +30.2 | Open | Mar 16, 2026 |
| CMPS COMPASS Pathways Buy | $7.85 | $11.74 | +49.6% | +29.9 | Open | Feb 23, 2026 |
| TTRX Turn Therapeutics Spec buy | $6.42 | $9.54 | +48.6% | +29.7 | Open | Jun 2, 2026 |
| PHIO Phio Pharmaceuticals Avoid | $1.32 | $1.08 | -18.2% | +29.5 | Open | Apr 15, 2026 |
| ARTV Artiva Biotherapeutics Spec buy | $6.80 | $10.04 | +47.6% | +29.3 | Open | Jun 8, 2026 |
| TVTX Travere Therapeutics Buy | $40.29 | $55.98 | +39% | +28.7 | Open | Apr 20, 2026 |
| PCSA Processa Pharmaceuticals Avoid | $2.87 | $2.52 | -12.2% | +27.3 | Open | Apr 13, 2026 |
| ABSI Absci Buy | $5.90 | $8.04 | +36.2% | +23.4 | Open | May 8, 2026 |
| CGEM Cullinan Therapeutics Buy | $12.57 | $17.35 | +38% | +22.6 | Open | Jan 22, 2026 |
| NRXP NRX Pharmaceuticals Spec buy | $3.03 | $4.13 | +36.5% | +22.3 | Open | Apr 27, 2026 |
| CLYM Climb Bio Buy | $8.78 | $12.29 | +40% | +22.1 | Open | Apr 29, 2026 |
| GLUE Monte Rosa Therapeutics Buy | $17.50 | $23.46 | +34.1% | +22.1 | Open | Apr 14, 2026 |
| BIOA BioAge Labs Buy | $15.34 | $21.59 | +40.7% | +21.7 | Open | May 18, 2026 |
| DYN Dyne Therapeutics Buy | $16.58 | $23.25 | +40.3% | +19 | Open | Jan 20, 2026 |
| EVMN Evommune Avoid | $13.79 | $10.56 | -23.4% | +18.9 | Open | Jun 30, 2026 |
| ACTU Actuate Therapeutics Avoid | $1.44 | $1.19 | -17.7% | +16.2 | Open | Jul 17, 2026 |
| HELP Cybin Spec buy | $6.88 | $7.71 | +12.1% | +16.1 | Open | Jun 29, 2026 |
| HELP Cybin Avoid | $5.52 | $4.32 | -21.7% | +15.2 | Closed Mar 30, 2026 | Mar 9, 2026 |
| CGON CG Oncology Buy | $53.81 | $71.87 | +33.6% | +14.9 | Open | Jan 23, 2026 |
| APVO Aptevo Therapeutics Avoid | $4.54 | $4.45 | -2% | +14.2 | Open | Jun 16, 2026 |
| NGNE Neurogene Spec buy | $32.18 | $35.26 | +9.6% | +14.1 | Open | Jun 30, 2026 |
| VOR Vor Biopharma Spec buy | $14.63 | $18.95 | +29.5% | +13.3 | Open | May 15, 2026 |
| EXEL Exelixis Buy | $41.36 | $55.66 | +34.6% | +12.8 | Open | Jan 30, 2026 |
| REPL Replimune Group Spec buy | $8.69 | $10.75 | +23.7% | +12.6 | Open | May 29, 2026 |
| KYMR Kymera Therapeutics Buy | $87.35 | $110.71 | +26.7% | +11.5 | Open | Apr 9, 2026 |
| GRCE Grace Therapeutics Avoid | $2.30 | $2.36 | +2.6% | +11.4 | Open | Apr 24, 2026 |
| OVID Ovid Therapeutics Spec buy | $1.81 | $2.35 | +29.6% | +11.4 | Open | Jan 27, 2026 |
| CYDY CytoDyn Avoid | $0.37 | $0.32 | -13.5% | +11.1 | Closed Apr 27, 2026 | Apr 21, 2026 |
| RCUS Arcus Biosciences Spec buy | $23.86 | $30.51 | +27.9% | +10.8 | Open | Jun 3, 2026 |
| CBIO Crescent Biopharma Buy | $15.67 | $16.73 | +6.8% | +9.5 | Open | Jul 15, 2026 |
| BCTX BriaCell Therapeutics Avoid | $3.27 | $3.58 | +9.5% | +9.4 | Open | Jun 2, 2026 |
| AKTS Aktis Oncology Buy | $19.73 | $24.06 | +21.9% | +9.3 | Open | May 12, 2026 |
| MDNAF Medicenna Therapeutics Avoid | $0.40 | $0.34 | -14.9% | +8.9 | Closed May 19, 2026 | May 14, 2026 |
| NVCT Nuvectis Pharma Spec buy | $17.55 | $19.33 | +10.1% | +6.8 | Open | Jun 23, 2026 |
| CRDL Cardiol Therapeutics Spec buy | $1.02 | $1.29 | +26.5% | +6.4 | Open | Mar 2, 2026 |
| NRSN NeuroSense Therapeutics Avoid | $0.73 | $0.67 | -8.4% | +6.2 | Open | Jul 13, 2026 |
| ADMA Adma Biologics Avoid | $9.16 | $8.28 | -9.6% | +4.1 | Open | Jul 6, 2026 |
| ACRS Aclaris Therapeutics Buy | $4.47 | $5.44 | +21.7% | +3.8 | Open | Apr 29, 2026 |
| CCCC C4 Therapeutics Buy | $3.17 | $3.61 | +13.9% | +1.3 | Open | May 12, 2026 |
| CRVO CervoMed Avoid | $2.25 | $2.63 | +16.7% | +1.2 | Open | Jun 10, 2026 |
| GPCR Structure Therapeutics Buy | $43.56 | $50.91 | +16.9% | +1 | Open | Apr 28, 2026 |
| XENE Xenon Pharmaceuticals Buy | $57.40 | $65.50 | +14.1% | +0.3 | Open | May 4, 2026 |
| CRVS Corvus Pharmaceuticals Buy | $11.50 | $13.67 | +18.9% | -1 | Open | May 19, 2026 |
| TNGX Tango Therapeutics Buy | $24.87 | $27.69 | +11.3% | -1.3 | Open | May 14, 2026 |
| RNAC Cartesian Therapeutics Buy | $6.93 | $7.70 | +11% | -2 | Open | May 27, 2026 |
| SABS SAB Biotherapeutics Spec buy | $3.67 | $3.57 | -2.6% | -2.5 | Open | Jul 16, 2026 |
| ELTX Elicio Therapeutics Avoid | $3.22 | $3.13 | -2.6% | -2.7 | Open | Jul 2, 2026 |
| ALLO Allogene Therapeutics Spec buy | $1.90 | $1.79 | -5.5% | -2.8 | Open | Jul 15, 2026 |
| CUE Cue Biopharma Spec buy | $28.62 | $33.17 | +15.9% | -3 | Open | Jun 2, 2026 |
| COGT Cogent Biosciences Buy | $37.00 | $39.64 | +7.1% | -3.1 | Open | Apr 20, 2026 |
| KURA Kura Oncology Buy | $9.22 | $10.44 | +13.2% | -3.1 | Open | May 15, 2026 |
| QURE uniQure Avoid | $17.99 | $19.13 | +6.3% | -3.7 | Closed May 1, 2026 | Mar 9, 2026 |
| VERA Vera Therapeutics Buy | $31.26 | $35.68 | +14.1% | -4.8 | Open | Jun 2, 2026 |
| AGMB Agomab Therapeutics Spec buy | $11.94 | $11.76 | -1.5% | -4.8 | Open | Jun 23, 2026 |
| KPRX Kiora Pharmaceuticals Spec buy | $2.32 | $2.53 | +9.1% | -5.1 | Open | Apr 27, 2026 |
| ATHE Alterity Therapeutics Buy | $4.29 | $4.70 | +9.6% | -6.1 | Open | Jun 9, 2026 |
| JANX Janux Therapeutics Buy | $14.11 | $15.58 | +10.4% | -7.4 | Open | Apr 29, 2026 |
| NBP NovaBridge Biosciences Spec buy | $1.96 | $1.72 | -12.4% | -7.8 | Open | Jun 30, 2026 |
| CLDX Celldex Therapeutics Buy | $33.86 | $35.10 | +3.7% | -8.5 | Open | Apr 16, 2026 |
| AKBA Akebia Therapeutics Buy | $1.16 | $1.20 | +3.4% | -9.3 | Open | May 8, 2026 |
| JBIO Jade Biosciences Spec buy | $17.75 | $19.23 | +8.3% | -10.6 | Open | Jun 2, 2026 |
| SLDB Solid Biosciences Spec buy | $7.14 | $8.06 | +12.9% | -12 | Open | Mar 23, 2026 |
| QURE uniQure Spec buy | $48.16 | $44.39 | -7.8% | -12.5 | Closed Jun 22, 2026 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| ELTX Elicio Therapeutics Avoid | $4.08 | $4.71 | +15.4% | -13.2 | Closed Jun 17, 2026 | Jun 15, 2026 |
| ARTV Artiva Biotherapeutics Spec buy | $10.60 | $8.55 | -19.3% | -13.4 | Closed May 19, 2026 | May 11, 2026 |
| LGVN Longeveron Spec buy | $0.89 | $0.84 | -5.6% | -14.4 | Closed May 11, 2026 | Mar 16, 2026 |
| BCTX BriaCell Therapeutics Spec buy | $4.47 | $3.76 | -15.9% | -15.6 | Closed Feb 23, 2026 | Feb 2, 2026 |
| ALLO Allogene Therapeutics Spec buy | $2.25 | $2.10 | -6.7% | -16.3 | Closed Jun 22, 2026 | Apr 27, 2026 |
| CLNN Clene Buy | $5.18 | $5.49 | +6% | -16.6 | Open | Jan 12, 2026 |
| HELP Cybin Spec buy | $6.73 | $5.52 | -18% | -18.1 | Closed Mar 9, 2026 | Feb 23, 2026 |
| VIR Vir Biotechnology Buy | $8.99 | $9.37 | +4.2% | -18.4 | Open | Mar 25, 2026 |
| IPSC Century Therapeutics Spec buy | $2.12 | $2.11 | -0.5% | -18.8 | Open | Jun 8, 2026 |
| CATX Perspective Therapeutics Buy | $2.73 | $2.92 | +7.1% | -19.3 | Open | Jan 5, 2026 |
| SANA Sana Biotechnology Spec buy | $3.26 | $3.08 | -5.4% | -19.6 | Open | Apr 27, 2026 |
| ENTA Enanta Pharmaceuticals Buy | $13.86 | $15.11 | +9% | -19.7 | Closed Jul 2, 2026 | Feb 17, 2026 |
| RYTM Rhythm Pharmaceuticals Buy | $102.59 | $102.22 | -0.4% | -21.6 | Open | Jan 20, 2026 |
| VKTX Viking Therapeutics Buy | $36.41 | $36.30 | -0.3% | -21.9 | Open | Dec 23, 2025 |
| EYPT EyePoint Buy | $13.34 | $12.48 | -6.4% | -22.9 | Open | May 1, 2026 |
| ERAS Erasca Spec buy | $11.56 | $9.11 | -21.2% | -24.6 | Closed Apr 29, 2026 | Feb 11, 2026 |
| TSHA Taysha Gene Therapies Buy | $6.46 | $5.67 | -12.2% | -26.4 | Open | Apr 27, 2026 |
| RCKT Rocket Pharmaceuticals Spec buy | $3.48 | $3.17 | -8.8% | -26.6 | Open | Apr 29, 2026 |
| SMMT Summit Therapeutics Buy | $15.94 | $15.05 | -5.6% | -27.3 | Open | Feb 20, 2026 |
| IMMX Immix Biopharma Buy | $10.66 | $9.08 | -14.8% | -27.4 | Open | May 12, 2026 |
| CRBU Caribou Biosciences Spec buy | $1.94 | $1.61 | -16.8% | -29.5 | Open | May 8, 2026 |
| ANAB AnaptysBio Spec buy | $66.59 | $55.72 | -16.3% | -30.5 | Open | Apr 27, 2026 |
| MAIA MAIA Biotechnology Spec buy | $1.31 | $1.27 | -3.1% | -31 | Open | Mar 30, 2026 |
| NTLA Intellia Therapeutics Spec buy | $13.20 | $11.19 | -15.2% | -31.1 | Open | Apr 28, 2026 |
| CBIO Crescent Biopharma Buy | $18.52 | $15.31 | -17.3% | -32.7 | Closed Jul 14, 2026 | May 11, 2026 |
| KYTX Kyverna Therapeutics Buy | $8.99 | $7.28 | -19% | -33.2 | Open | Apr 27, 2026 |
| CGTX Cognition Therapeutics Spec buy | $1.08 | $0.93 | -14.3% | -33.8 | Open | Mar 9, 2026 |
| BMEA Biomea Fusion Spec buy | $1.53 | $1.25 | -18.6% | -34.5 | Open | Apr 28, 2026 |
| SRPT Sarepta Therapeutics Spec buy | $17.79 | $15.79 | -11.2% | -34.9 | Open | Feb 13, 2026 |
| VTVT vTv Therapeutics Spec buy | $36.41 | $31.34 | -13.9% | -35.2 | Open | Feb 4, 2026 |
| IMTX Immatics Buy | $10.45 | $9.24 | -11.6% | -36.6 | Open | Jan 2, 2026 |
| SGMT Sagimet Biosciences Spec buy | $8.75 | $6.92 | -20.9% | -36.7 | Open | Apr 28, 2026 |
| ACRV Acrivon Therapeutics Buy | $1.93 | $1.66 | -14% | -36.8 | Open | Jan 8, 2026 |
| ARVN Arvinas Spec buy | $10.78 | $7.74 | -28.2% | -37.5 | Closed Jun 22, 2026 | May 4, 2026 |
| OCGN Ocugen Spec buy | $1.65 | $1.25 | -23.9% | -39.4 | Open | Jan 22, 2026 |
| MDNAF Medicenna Therapeutics Spec buy | $0.33 | $0.24 | -26.4% | -41.8 | Open | May 22, 2026 |
| INAB IN8bio Spec buy | $1.56 | $1.20 | -23.2% | -42.2 | Open | Jun 2, 2026 |
| CABA Cabaletta Bio Buy | $3.83 | $2.73 | -28.9% | -42.7 | Open | May 4, 2026 |
| LRMR Larimar Therapeutics Buy | $5.23 | $4.04 | -22.8% | -42.9 | Open | Mar 2, 2026 |
| GRCE Grace Therapeutics Spec buy | $3.83 | $2.30 | -39.9% | -44.2 | Closed Apr 24, 2026 | Jan 26, 2026 |
| ABOS Acumen Pharmaceuticals Buy | $2.71 | $2.17 | -19.9% | -44.8 | Open | Mar 23, 2026 |
| STRO Sutro Biopharma Spec buy | $33.59 | $23.08 | -31.3% | -45.5 | Open | Apr 27, 2026 |
| DBVT DBV Technologies Buy | $20.27 | $14.86 | -26.7% | -47.4 | Closed Jul 16, 2026 | Dec 22, 2025 |
| CTMX CytomX Therapeutics Spec buy | $4.46 | $3.32 | -25.6% | -50.4 | Open | Mar 23, 2026 |
| CYDY CytoDyn Spec buy | $0.32 | $0.20 | -38% | -52.2 | Open | Apr 27, 2026 |
| KTTA Pasithea Therapeutics Buy | $0.77 | $0.47 | -38.3% | -57.3 | Open | May 18, 2026 |
| ALT Altimmune Spec buy | $4.09 | $2.79 | -31.7% | -58.1 | Open | Jan 5, 2026 |
| IMRX Immuneering Spec buy | $6.66 | $4.31 | -35.3% | -58.4 | Open | Dec 29, 2025 |
| OMER Omeros Buy | $15.71 | $9.89 | -37% | -58.6 | Open | Dec 26, 2025 |
| GLSI Greenwich LifeSciences Spec buy | $23.67 | $12.87 | -45.6% | -59.5 | Open | Jun 4, 2026 |
| VRDN Viridian Therapeutics Buy | $29.17 | $19.19 | -34.2% | -60.1 | Open | Feb 5, 2026 |
| GANX Gain Therapeutics Buy | $3.19 | $1.81 | -43.1% | -63.8 | Open | Dec 22, 2025 |
| LXEO Lexeo Therapeutics Spec buy | $8.12 | $4.71 | -42.1% | -64.7 | Open | Jan 12, 2026 |
| TARA Protara Therapeutics Spec buy | $7.43 | $4.01 | -46% | -65.6 | Open | Feb 23, 2026 |
| NGEN NervGen Pharma Spec buy | $3.85 | $1.68 | -56.4% | -70.6 | Open | Apr 27, 2026 |
| MIST Milestone Pharmaceuticals Buy | $2.35 | $1.17 | -50.3% | -74.4 | Open | Dec 15, 2025 |
| ERAS Erasca Avoid | $9.11 | $17.90 | +96.5% | -76 | Closed Jul 13, 2026 | Apr 29, 2026 |
| REPL Replimune Group Avoid | $4.76 | $8.69 | +82.6% | -77 | Closed May 29, 2026 | Apr 10, 2026 |
| WVE Wave Life Sciences Buy | $13.44 | $5.70 | -57.6% | -80.6 | Open | Mar 3, 2026 |
| GUTS Fractyl Health Buy | $2.09 | $0.76 | -63.8% | -84 | Open | Jan 7, 2026 |
No calls match these filters.
On my watch list
- XERS Xeris Biopharma Watch
Profitable specialty pharma with strong Recorlev growth, but method-of-use patents face simultaneous four-filer Paragraph IV assault and a 2028–2029 debt refinancing wall make the 2040 durability the multiple requires too uncertain to buy ahead of ANDA clarity.
- BLTE Belite Bio Watch
Stargardt science is de-risked and balance sheet is a fortress, but at ~$6B near all-time highs the stock already prices in approval plus GA success, with two key questions (vision benefit and PHOENIX readout) still unresolved.
- INMB Inmune Bio Watch
Legible voucher optionality (~3x market cap) and a real 2H-2026 UK filing catalyst keep the stock on the radar, but a failed cognitive primary, a single small cell-therapy trial facing CMC scrutiny, and a going-concern balance sheet with a float-doubling ATM keep the author on the sidelines until a financing clears the going-concern flag and MHRA accepts/approves the CORDStrom MAA.
- VSTM Verastem Watch
Real approved franchise and elite smart-money ownership offset by active going-concern qualification and VS-7375 racing a Phase-3-validated competitor; watch until balance-sheet fix and confirmed US RECIST data land.
-
ARCUS has first-ever human evidence of cccDNA elimination but the cure thesis is unproven, NUC withdrawal has not begun, bepirovirsen is an approvable competitor, and the balance sheet depends on ATM dilution — wait for off-therapy control data before entering.
-
Ambiguous Type A minutes triggered an immediate clarification request and a new Type D meeting (end of Q3 2026), pushing the resubmission timeline into 2027 while the bounded-downside, event-driven thesis remains intact.
- LENZ LENZ Therapeutics Watch
Science is de-risked and valuation is below net cash, but commercial adoption is unproven with ~$1.7M quarterly revenue against ~$45M SG&A; waiting for prescription curve inflection before opening a position.
-
Management's 138-month FDA-contingent lease signals internal approval confidence, but the injunction, AdCom, and PDUFA trinary remain unresolved and upgrade triggers are still unmet.
- GERN Geron Watch
Validated telomerase franchise with real revenue and a near-term MF survival readout, but a disappointing launch, leveraged balance sheet, and valuation already pricing the option keep it off the buy list until IMpactMF reads out.
- ZYME Zymeworks Watch
Zanidatamab franchise and Aug 25 PDUFA are near-money-good, but the royalty-aggregation model is unproven, the balance sheet is heavily leveraged, and one fund controls the company — wait for the milestone to land and recurring royalties to ramp before initiating.
- TENX Tenax Therapeutics Watch
Fidelity's 14.9% stake alongside T. Rowe's 17.2% is a modestly constructive ownership signal, but does not change the science, valuation math, or coin-flip nature of the August LEVEL binary.
-
Foghorn offers elite science and a Lilly partnership but has zero disclosed human efficacy, no catalyst date, and a single clinical asset it neither controls nor discloses — worth watching for the first FHD-909 efficacy signal before owning.
- PMN ProMIS Neurosciences Watch
PMN310 has coherent science and an elite institutional syndicate but zero human efficacy data, with a rival oligomer-selective antibody (sabirnetug) reading out first; the risk/reward favors waiting for the late-2026 sabirnetug topline before committing capital.
-
Science and safety differentiation are real and balance sheet is funded through the binary, but Phase 3 endpoint is non-inferiority against a commoditizing molecule, sickest-cohort BCVA drift is a live risk against a 4-letter margin, and Lilly- and AbbVie-backed rivals read out the same window after the stock has already tripled.
- ARDX Ardelyx Watch
The $50M debt draw extends the runway to 2030 without dilution, strengthening the balance sheet, but the 2033 patent cliff and XPHOZAH bundle impairment are unchanged, keeping the Watch List stance intact.
- ZURA Zura Bio Watch
Financing is de-risked through both Phase 2 readouts, but the entire incremental thesis rests on the unproven BAFF arm, compounded by governance/SPAC overhang, a Lilly buyback ceiling, and a stock already up 200-360% off lows — no clear edge in owning before Q4 2026 HS data.
- ACIU AC Immune Watch
ABATE failed to deliver a plaque-clearance signal and management pivoted to a new adjuvant, shifting thesis weight entirely onto the H2 2026 VacSYn PD vaccine readout; Watch List maintained as new capital pre-VacSYn is harder to justify.
- XNCR Xencor Watch
Xencor trades near cash value with diversified platform optionality, but lacks a de-risked near-term catalyst, has its largest royalty stream in active dispute with Alexion, and all wholly-owned programs face crowded, competitive markets.
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OLC is a legitimate reformulation with a genuine binary approval event, but buying common four days before a manufacturing-driven PDUFA at a 52-week high with heavy dilution, active ATM, live litigation, and an unresolved CMS TDAPA thesis represents poor risk/reward; revisit after the June 29 decision and CMS clarity.
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First-mover orphan asset with a reauthorized $100M+ PRV voucher is asymmetric but un-ownable until the POC 1 controlled-data unblinding and Phase 3 financing both clear, given explicit going-concern doubt, a 4.5x warrant overhang, and zero read-out placebo-controlled efficacy.
- SCYX Scynexis Watch
A credible orphan target and below-cash balance sheet keep it off the PASS pile, but a distressed-seller re-skin with no human ADPKD efficacy entering Phase 2 behind Novartis, Vertex, and AbbVie warrants waiting for the 2H 2027 htTKV readout to prove the mechanism.
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NDV-01 has de-risked biology and a genuine office-based delivery advantage over approved INLEXZO, but pivotal-population data does not yet exist and the team's late-stage track record is poor; the year-end 2026 Cohort 2A readout is the gate to a potential upgrade.
- IMNM Immunome Watch
High asset quality with positive Phase 3 and NDA filed, but rich ~$1.8B EV after a +200% run, low-teen BMS royalty drag, 80% dose-reduction safety profile, EcoR1 trimming, and second-mover launch against Merck KGaA incumbent warrant waiting for a better entry or launch traction evidence.
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Interesting biology and a freshly-funded balance sheet, but the lead asset's human efficacy is a three-patient biopsy story on an unvalidated surrogate, the readthrough mechanism class is under FDA/EMA cloud, and the only meaningful catalyst is ~12 months away after a 230% relisting squeeze.
- BEAM Beam Therapeutics Watch
PKU IND clearance is a thesis-tracking checkpoint, not a re-rating event; the binding constraint remains LNP hepatotoxicity in BEAM-302's multi-dose cohort, which must be resolved before deploying capital.
- IRD Opus Genetics Watch
Genuine clinical signal and elite shareholder register, but ultra-orphan commercial math, N=6/N=1 datasets, pending composition-of-matter IP on the lead asset, and a warrant-and-debt-heavy balance sheet leave risk/reward balanced after a 7x run — wait for the September 2026 BEST1 Cohort 1 readout before paying ~$5.
- INKT MiNK Therapeutics Watch
Differentiated off-the-shelf iNKT biology and a cleanly randomized ARDS readout in a no-approved-therapy market make it worth watching, but going-concern balance sheet, Agenus control, absent lead-asset composition-of-matter IP, and lack of specialist smart money keep it off a Buy until H2 2026 data de-risks the platform.
- TYRA Tyra Biosciences Watch
Elite selective FGFR3 chemistry with a fortress balance sheet and blue-chip backing, but fast-follower in ACH, J&J-dominated NMIBC, IC50-not-IC90 dosing, and zero Phase 2 efficacy in hand; revisit after August IR NMIBC readout.
- ZBIO Zenas BioPharma Watch
De-risked BLA-stage orphan asset but second-mover commercial disadvantage, China CMO tail risk, stacked royalties, and binary SLE readout on a post-hoc subgroup keep it on the watch list until BLA acceptance and SunStone clarity.
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The 99.4% approval of the 240M authorized share charter amendment gives management full legal authority to dilute through binary catalysts, and the stock's 12.4% decline confirms the market is pricing in the dilution skew.
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APEX fully enrolled with baseline PVR matching CADENCE exactly, crystallizing the binary readout to early Q1 2027, but the thesis is unchanged — relaxin graveyard and CADENCE 6MWD miss remain the bear case; no new reason to enter ahead of the coin-flip.
- CNTB Connect Biopharma Watch
Differentiated rapid-onset IL-4Rα mechanism with genuine acute-exacerbation white space, but the entire equity hinges on one funded-but-binary mid-2026 Seabreeze readout against subgroup-heavy data and a China-structure/Phase-3-dilution overhang.
- NKTR Nektar Therapeutics Watch
First-in-class Treg biology and fortress balance sheet are real, but middling efficacy, a post-hoc-rescued AA primary, and a competitor a full development cycle ahead in AD do not justify chasing a 570% move at current levels.
- OCS Oculis Holding Watch
Post-flagship-failure name with substantial net cash and regulatory tailwinds on two remaining binary assets, but datasets are too thin and management credibility too damaged to justify opening a position now.
- CGEN Compugen Watch
Near-cash EV with partnered Phase 3 royalty and Gilead option provides cushion, but the owned binary (COM701 monotherapy maintenance) rests on a post-hoc subgroup and thin single-agent data in a distrusted checkpoint class, warranting a watch rather than an immediate buy.
- TGTX Tg Therapeutics Watch
SubQ Phase 3 odds improved after positive Phase 1 PK/PD/safety data, but at $40.11 the stock is back in the upper half of its range and the accumulation-on-pullbacks logic still applies; the real re-rating catalyst is the YE2026/early-2027 Phase 3 topline.
- BCAX Bicara Therapeutics Watch
Genuinely de-risked small cap with elite balance sheet, real global Phase 3, Breakthrough designation, and live takeout optionality, but efficacy thesis remains single-arm and open-label with a better-funded competitor ahead.
- PEPG PepGen Watch
Despite differentiated PPMO chemistry and a $12B M&A precedent, the 5 mg/kg MAD efficacy miss, unresolved FDA partial clinical hold, kidney safety signal, loaded $400M shelf, and late competitive position warrant watching rather than buying ahead of the 2H 2026 binary readout.
- IMUX Immunic Watch
Strong smart-money signal and credible binary catalyst are offset by a Phase 2 PMS primary miss, generic Aubagio as pricing floor, fenebrutinib positive Phase 3 in both indications, and heavy warrant plus royalty overhang; wait for ENSURE readouts before committing capital.
- NKTX Nkarta Watch
Differentiated outpatient CAR-NK thesis with credible biology and cash runway into 2028+, but zero autoimmune efficacy data and a stacked autologous CAR-T competitor field require seeing real H2 2026 data before sizing up.
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Differentiated CD19 CAR T with real revenue and multiple H2 2026 catalysts, but a stacked royalty burden and near-certain 2027 dilution event prevent a clean buy recommendation.
- CHRS Coherus Oncology Watch
The mid-2026 casdozokitug Phase 2 randomized readout is a 50/50 binary; the author recommends waiting for data rather than committing capital pre-readout, despite asymmetric upside potential.
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REGAL is at 78/80 events with readout weeks away, financing risk is fully resolved at ~$114.6M cash, and the binary setup is unchanged — hold into the imminent data with position sizing as the key variable.
- PMVP PMV Pharmaceuticals Watch
ORR drifted down to 44% confirmed as denominator grew and dilution is now a mathematical certainty, but NEJM validation and durable responses keep the science thesis intact — wait for the inevitable raise to clear before entering.
- SPRB Spruce Biosciences Watch
Science and capital runway are solid but position initiation should wait for CMC/PPQ batch manufacturing confirmation before the Q4 2026 BLA submission.
- KOD Kodiak Sciences Hold
Going-concern disclosure signals an imminent dilutive raise before the September DAYBREAK readout; science remains intact but risk/reward is no longer asymmetric at current levels, and any remaining position should be sized as a binary bet.
- ANNX Annexon Watch
ATM already tapped and upsized to $150M, GBS FDA pushback more explicit, and ARCHER II narrowed to Q4 2026; dilution risk is now empirical and the cleanest entry remains a pullback after FORWARD data clarifies the GBS path.
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De-risking signals (Shih settlement, EAP launch, clean balance sheet) are building ahead of the Q3 2026 LUCIDITY readout, but the binary still dominates and the watch-list stance is unchanged.
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Science is compelling and bankruptcy risk is removed, but the complex warrant-heavy capital structure creates a structural price ceiling and execution risk warrants patience before taking a position.
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GTX-102 lower-limb-weakness safety risk meaningfully reduced by 3-year clean LTE data, but Bedford CMC risk unchanged and cash runway tightened; wait for August 23 DTX401 PDUFA before entering.
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FDA Fast Track for BBO-11818, a strategic C-suite reshuffle signaling M&A/pivotal trial positioning, and supportive AACR preclinical data modestly strengthen the thesis, but the clinical n remains too small to change the watch stance ahead of 2H 2026 data.
The full record
| Category | # calls | Beat XBI | Avg return | Avg vs XBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open buy calls | 104 | 39% | +11.4% | -5.3 |
| Core | 58 | 45% | +19.9% | +2.1 |
| Speculative | 46 | 30% | +0.6% | -14.7 |
| Open avoid calls | 18 | 94% | — | +29 |
| Closed buy calls | 16 | 25% | +10.8% | +1.3 |
| Closed avoids | 8 | 50% | — | -9.1 |
Hypothetical editorial track record, not a managed portfolio — past performance does not guarantee future results. Not investment advice.